While rebel alliances in Syria are often short-lived, the creation of the Islamic Alliance has the potential to make anti-Assad moderates extinct. The Alliance is a potent concoction of some of the most popular and combat-effective units, which have united under a dangerously anti-Western banner.
Signatories to the declaration include the Salafist Ahrar al-Sham and al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, along with the moderate-Islamist Liwa Tawhid, Liwa Islam, Suqour al-Sham, Haqq, and Furqan Brigades. Most disturbing is the support from several secular-moderate units operating under the Free Syrian Army command structure, including the Northern Storm Brigade, which recently hosted U.S. Sen. John McCain. The ultra-radical Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) did not sign the declaration, nor did several powerful secular or moderate Islamist units, such as the Farouq Brigades or Ahfad al-Rasoul Brigades.
The recent declaration indicates a merger of two major ideological streams within the Syrian rebels—the moderate-Islamist stream and the Salafist stream. Of the Syrian rebels’ estimated 100,000-plus headcount, 30,000 to 40,000 of these fighters now fall under the Islamic Alliance banner. Yet while these fighters do not make up the majority of the rebels, their units are among the most well-trained, organized and combat-effective, particularly in relation to the less-disciplined and less-funded units affiliated under the Free Syrian Army’s Supreme Military Council (SMC) structure.
Prior to this week’s unification, moderate-Islamist groups largely coordinated under the banner of the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF), whereas Salafist groups operated under the banner of the Syrian Islamic Front (SIF). And until now, elements of both fronts were represented in the SMC, which is linked to the Syrian National Coalition. The SMC’s leader, Gen. Salim Idriss, has spent the last year vainly advocating for increased Western military assistance, including military intervention.
So it was only a matter of time before the conservative Islamists in Syria consolidated their mounting influence. In rebel-held areas nationwide, Salafist units such as Ahrar al-Sham have gained notoriety among locals both for their combat record and for their ability to alleviate economic hardship through charity programs. This is in contrast to moderate rebel units affiliated with the Free Syrian Army, which have been blamed by local residents for partaking in organized crime and other spoils of war.
On the other side of the spectrum, the ultra-radical ISIS has been criticized for its strict enforcement of Shariah law in liberated areas, including public executions for minor violations such as the consumption of alcohol or smoking.
The merger of these two Islamist streams is reflective of the preference of a significant portion of the anti-Assad cohort in Syria. While these populations have demonstrated their opposition to ultra-radical influences, they have become more supportive of groups that advocate the implementation of some form of Shariah law in the country.
Further contributing to this trend is the widespread criticism, among moderate opposition elements, of Western nations’ refusal to use military force in Syria or increase arms supplies. Western hesitancy to intervene on humanitarian grounds, even after the Assad regime’s chemical-weapons attacks, has thus increased the influence of well-funded conservative religious figures and militant groups.
There are several indications that the creation of the Islamic Alliance may herald the creation of a “Syrian Islamic Army”—one that would challenge the Syrian opposition’s current, moderate leadership. Representatives from the SILF-affiliated Liwa Tawhid and Liwa Islam Brigades have since issued statements hinting that additional declarations will soon be made by the Islamic Alliance with regard to the formation of a “new army.”
Other reports indicate that signatory units to the Islamic Alliance are developing their own political bureaus and platforms in an effort to challenge those of the Syrian National Coalition. In true “if you can’t beat them, join them” fashion, moderate rebels become willing to throw in their lot with conservative rivals when their survival is at stake.
The go od intentions of Syria’s moderates are repaid with empty rhetoric and unfulfilled promises from the West—while the Islamists are benefiting from antitank missiles, food and funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and wealthy private donors across the Muslim world who seek to oust the Assad regime at almost any cost.
In what has become a vicious cycle, the refusal of the West to assert itself in Syria has turned the country’s battlefields into fertile breeding grounds for destabilizing religious fundamentalism. The nightmares of policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic are now reality.
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Mr. Nisman is the Middle East Intelligence Manager at Max Security Solutions, a geopolitical and security risk consulting firm. The Wall Street Journal
Reuters. The creation of the Islamic Alliance has the potential to make anti-Assad moderates extinct.
